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Metro Realty- Arizona Real Estate Market Report

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for March 2021

 

Market Summary for the Beginning of March

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for March 1, 2021 compared with March 1, 2020 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 4,491 versus 11,003 last year – down 59.2% – and down 13.3% from 5,180 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 9,094 versus 15,776 last year – down 42.4% – and down 6.5% compared with 9,727 last month
  • Pending Listings: 8,027 versus 7,215 last year – up 11.3% – and up 13.5% from 7,070 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,630 versus 11,988 last year – up 5.4% – and up 8.7% from 11,617 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 8,020 versus 7,470 last year – up 7.4% – and up 9.1% from 7,354 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $227.89 versus $185.09 last year – up 23.1% – and up 4.8% from $217.47 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $349,000 versus $295,000 last year – up 18.3% – and up 2.9% from $339,000 last month

In March 2020 we wrote that the lack of supply was making life extremely difficult for buyers. It is now down almost 60% since then. What phrase can we use to describe this – scorched earth?

The monthly sales count, pending listing counts and under contract counts are all higher than last year, but not by as much as last month. This confirms the downward trend in demand. Lower demand really does not make much difference when supply is this scarce. Even if demand dropped well below normal we would still have multiple offers for most listings.

Multiple offers are the mechanism that drives prices up. One offer per listing represents stability. No offers tends to drive prices down. We would need about 7 times the current supply to get back somewhere close to normality.

The full impact of the housing shortage is not being properly recognized, because many people incorrectly think the end of forbearance will bring a flood of distressed homes onto the market.

We think this is very unlikely. While we can imagine a noticeable increase in supply taking place, it is very unlikely to reach the levels that would dramatically change the balance in the Greater Phoenix market.

It is somewhat reminiscent of the “shadow inventory” theory of 2011 through 2013 which turned out to be a mirage, invented by a data analysis company that did not understand how to measure the foreclosure process properly.

Their erroneous calculations were re-broadcast by the media and spread as if they were true. But it was all imaginary. There was no significant shadow inventory then and there is no huge wave of distressed homes waiting to hit the market now.

Do not be taken in by these myths just because other people chose to believe them. Over the centuries many people have believed things that are now known to be false. It is still just as common today. In fact the internet and social media makes it even easier for falsehoods to become accepted as facts.

Many people also seem to have forgotten what really happened during the bursting of the housing bubble: The sequence is important.

  1. The active listing supply increased dramatically between April 2005 and December 2006 due to over-building of new homes and the frantic speculative wave of 2004 quickly losing momentum
  2. Prices started to fall from July 2006 onward due to supply becoming much stronger than demand
  3. The fall in prices meant recent buyers had zero or negative equity from 2007 onwards, loosening their motivation to keep up their mortgage payments
  4. Foreclosures started to be filed starting in 2007 against homes that were quickly abandoned due to the lack of equity
  5. A huge wave of bank owned properties hit the market in 2008 and 2009, adding to the supply problem
  6. The lack of equity meant many homes listed in 2008 through 2011 were short sales.
  7. Investors pounced on the bank-owned homes and short sales from 2009 onwards, bringing the drop in prices to a complete halt by 2011

This is unlike the current situation. We have far too little supply, not far too much. Note that the excess supply in 2006 was the primary problem that burst the bubble. The foreclosures came later and were an effect, not a cause, of the bubble bursting.

This bears repeating – FORECLOSURES DID NOT CAUSE THE HOUSING CRASH – they were a consequence of the excess supply of 2006.

Falling prices caused the foreclosures, not the other way round. It then became a negative feedback loop until prices fell low enough to attract speculators and investors back into the market in 2009. The housing crash was visible and inevitable by the fourth quarter of 2005, while foreclosure were still at normal levels.

In 2021, we are entering a period of extreme appreciation. We are measuring 23.1% using the monthly $/SF figure and this is quite mild compared with what we expect to see in 2 or 3 months time. The average price per square foot for closed listings rose almost 5% in just 4 weeks during February.

Dollar volume is at very high levels for the time of year, thanks to unit sales up 7.4% and pricing up 23.1% compared to a year ago, when the market was already at full steam ahead.

We expect to see dollar volume hit new records during the second quarter, along with all of the pricing metrics.

For Sellers
While supply is still 77% below normal for this time of year and demand is 17% above normal, demand has been dropping faster than supply over the last 30 days.

It’s not noticeable when one is in the midst of a contract negotiation today because sellers rarely notice when they’re getting, for example, only 15 offers instead of 25.  But consider last December demand was 35% above normal; at this rate, demand could be at a normal level in a couple months and below normal by June.

This will not cause prices to decline because there are still a minuscule number of competing listings in the MLS, but it could mean that the second half of 2021 could look different from the first, especially if there’s a temporary boost in new listings after the forbearance period ends and the foreclosure moratorium is lifted.

The average mortgage rate rose to 3.02% this month according to Freddie Mac.  Even though this is still considered an excellent rate, it understandably weakens the purchasing power for some buyers and reduces the affordability measure for Greater Phoenix overall.

When a family making the median income can afford less than 60% of what’s selling, demand is typically expected to suffer.  However, buyers with median incomes coming from Los Angeles and San Francisco are used to only affording 9-11% of what’s selling in their home towns, so Greater Phoenix prices look amazing by comparison.  In fact, for some the idea of being able to own a home at all is amazing.

More For Sellers

While supply is still 77% below normal for this time of year and demand is 17% above normal, demand has been dropping faster than supply over the last 30 days.

It’s not noticeable when one is in the midst of a contract negotiation today because sellers rarely notice when they’re getting, for example, only 15 offers instead of 25. But consider last December demand was 35% above normal; at this rate, demand could be at a normal level in a couple months and below normal by June.

This will not cause prices to decline because there are still a minuscule number of competing listings in the MLS, but it could mean that the second half of 2021 could look different from the first, especially if there’s a temporary boost in new listings after the forbearance period ends and the foreclosure moratorium is lifted.

The average mortgage rate rose to 3.02% this month according to Freddie Mac. Even though this is still considered an excellent rate, it understandably weakens the purchasing power for some buyers and reduces the affordability measure for Greater Phoenix overall.

When a family making the median income can afford less than 60% of what’s selling, demand is typically expected to suffer. However, buyers with median incomes coming from Los Angeles and San Francisco are used to only affording 9-11% of what’s selling in their home towns, so Greater Phoenix prices look amazing by comparison. In fact, for some the idea of being able to own a home at all is amazing.

For Buyers

While 56% of all homes still sell for at or below list price, if you have a budget between $250K-$400K, the percentage selling over list is highest at 52% with the median amount over asking at $10,000.  However even if your budget is over $400K, a significant percentage is closing over asking price.

Up to $800K, 42% have sold over list with a median escalation of $12,000-$15,000. From $800K-$1M, 30% sold over list with a median escalation of $17,000-$20,000.

From $1M-$2.5M, 20% sold over list with a median escalation of $30,000-$50,000. Over $2.5M, only 2 sold over asking price with a median escalation of $150,000.

Over the past 6 weeks, REALTORS® have added an average of 2,059 new listings per week to the Arizona Regional MLS.  During the same time period, an average of 2,312 contracts were accepted per week.

This is what has caused the overall supply of homes to consistently drop and competition between buyers to escalate.
While just over 2,000 new listings per week may seem like a lot, it’s actually the lowest rate for this time of year in at least 20 years. A normal level would be considered around 2,500 new listings.

More For Buyers

In 44% of sales through the Arizona Regional MLS, they closed over asking price in the last 30 days.

The median amount over asking price for all price ranges combined is $10,000 with a range between $1 to $310,000. (I know what you’re thinking, “$1 over?

What is this, ‘The Price is Right’?”

In some cases, yes.) While 56% of all homes still sell for at or below list price, if you have a budget between $250K-$400K, the percentage selling over list is highest at 52% with the median amount over asking at $10,000.

However even if your budget is over $400K, a significant percentage is closing over asking price. Up to $800K, 42% have sold over list with a median escalation of $12,000-$15,000.

From $800K-$1M, 30% sold over list with a median escalation of $17,000-$20,000. From $1M-$2.5M, 20% sold over list with a median escalation of $30,000- $50,000. Over $2.5M, only 2 sold over asking price with a median escalation of $150,000.

Over the past 6 weeks, Realtors have added an average of 2,059 new listings per week to the Arizona Regional MLS. During the same time period, an average of 2,312 contracts were accepted per week.

This is what has caused the overall supply of homes to consistently drop and competition between buyers to escalate. While just over 2,000 new listings per week may seem like a lot, it’s actually the lowest rate for this time of year in at least 20 years. A normal level would be considered around 2,500 new listings.

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Metro Phoenix Real Estate Market Report - This Month 2021
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Metro Phoenix Real Estate Market Report - This Month 2021
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Read more about the quickly changing Metro Phoenix Real Estate Market here.
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Metro Realty AZ
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